onsdag 2 november 2016


(Om någon kommer åt den Canaccord analysen, maila gärna den till originalbraila at yahoo.com).

Colombia-focused Canacol Energy Ltd. (CNE) added four cents to $4.18 on 451,700 shares, finally enjoying an up day after spending nearly two weeks drifting down from $4.58. Two weeks ago, the test results arrived from Canacol's latest gas exploration well, Trombon-1. This was an offset to the Nispero-1 gas exploration well, which in August tested at 28 million cubic feet a day and hit 79 feet of net gas pay. In September, Canacol spudded Trombon-1, and on Oct. 17, it announced a test rate of 26 million cubic feet a day and just 26 feet of net gas pay. Investors seemed underwhelmed. Canacol, unfazed, patted itself on the back for its record drilling time of 16 days.
It also announced third quarter production of 18,908 barrels of oil equivalent a day, including gas production of 86.1 million cubic feet a day (roughly 15,100 barrels of oil equivalent a day). This is up sharply from 10,455 barrels of oil equivalent a day, including just 3,470 barrels a day of gas, in the same period last year. The increase is thanks to a major gas pipeline expansion completed in April. The expansion allowed Canacol to boost its gas production to around 90 million cubic feet a day. Even before the expansion was finished, the company was outlining its next gas production goal, which is to reach 190 million cubic feet a day in 2018. Management spent last week talking up this goal during a marketing trip set up by Canaccord Genuity. Canaccord analyst Kimberly Hedlin, summarizing the trip in an 18-page research note this morning, marvelled at Canacol's "stellar gas economics," which are supported by multiyear sales contracts. Before the end of the year, Canacol expects to sign new gas contracts to cover its planned production boost to 190 million cubic feet a day, said Ms. Hedlin. She added that the company aims to announce a pipeline contract for the required new capacity at the same time.
Another "important near-term catalyst," said Ms. Hedlin, is the possibility of a debt refinancing. Canacol's roughly $250-million (U.S.) debt load requires $90-million (U.S.) in principal payments in 2018. Canacol is seeking to defer these payments into late 2018 or early 2019 so that it can put the money into drilling. Such a deferral would be "an important factor in funding a new pipeline contract," mused Ms. Hedlin. Canacol is currently hammering out the details of a potential refinancing, but it is not clear when it might have anything in hand.

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