tisdag 5 juli 2016


Vi äger ju Canacol för naturgasen.

Men vi har hela tiden vetat att det finns en väldigt omfattande "optionalitet" på olja vid högre oljepris.

Men utöver det så finns även en ruskigt spännande option i det omfattande ägandet av colombiansk "frackingmark" där större andra bolag betalar allt för att köpa in sig. Intressant kommentar om detta här, betänk att det är noll och intet inom dagens värdering av Canacol. GTE's köp säger en del om vad oljedivisionen inom Canacol BORDE vara värd, dvs mycket högre än dagens noll... och det är suveränt att CNE inte har något behov av att ta stora förvärv för att "förnya sina utvecklingsmöjligheter".

Colombia-focused Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE) lost 30 cents to $4.04 on 2.84 million shares, after agreeing to buy the private PetroLatina Energy for $525-million (U.S.). This will be its third takeover this year, and by far its most expensive. Gran Tierra previously bought PetroGranada Colombia and Petroamerica Oil in January for a combined total of about $89-million (U.S.) and 13.6 million shares. These deals added production of about 3,400 barrels of oil equivalent a day (before royalties) and were done primarily to expand Gran Tierra's position in its core Putumayo basin. PetroLatina operates in the Middle Magdalena basin and is forecast to produce 5,400 barrels of oil a day (before royalties) in the second half of 2016. The $525-million (U.S.) purchase price works out to a hefty $97,200 (U.S.) per barrel of production. By comparison, Gran Tierra paid just $28,000 per barrel of production when it bought Petroamerica. On top of that, in order to finance the acquisition of PetroLatina, Gran Tierra is using up its cash, taking on debt and completing a $173.5-million (U.S.) private placement under which it will ultimately issue 57.8 million shares (compared with about 288 million currently outstanding). Investors seem unnerved by the dilution and the high purchase price. Gran Tierra promises that the takeover will be worth it. It has high hopes for the Middle Magdalena basin, which will become a new core area for the company. There, it says it can more than triple the production of PetroLatina's core asset, the Acordionero field, to 15,000 barrels a day (before royalties) in 2019. As well, although Acordionero's production is conventional, Gran Tierra points out that PetroLatina's assets as a whole are in the heart of an emerging unconventional trend.
Gran Tierra does not go into specifics about the unconventional potential, but it is undoubtedly watching companies such as Canacol Energy Ltd. (CNE), up five cents to $4.40 on 160,200 shares. Canacol is better known at the moment for its Colombian gas assets. Currently its investors are awaiting a reserve report for a large gas discovery that Canacol made earlier this year, when it tested its Oboe-1 gas well at a combined rate of 66 million cubic feet a day (nearly 11,600 barrels of oil equivalent a day). Canacol had said it would release the report in June, but has yet to do so. Besides gas, Canacol has various conventional oil assets and -- more intriguingly for Gran Tierra's purposes -- seven unconventional blocks in the Magdalena basin, two of which are owned with farmee ConocoPhillips. ConocoPhillips is planning to frack the first well on these blocks by year-end. That would be the Picoplata-1 well on the VMM-3 block, owned 80 per cent by ConocoPhillips and 20 per cent by Canacol, and targeting the La Luna shale. The stakes are high. According to the most recent edition of "spirit Magazine," a quarterly publication by ConocoPhillips: "The upcoming Picoplata 1 well tests will be the culmination of years of effort ... to determine whether the reservoir is worth developing. ... Unfavourable results could cause ConocoPhillips to exit the country, an option it retains." A map on the Colombian energy regulator's website shows that ConocoPhillips and Canacol's VMM-3 block is immediately west and north of PetroLatina's (soon-to-be Gran Tierra's) assets in the Magdalena basin.

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