onsdag 1 juni 2016

Oljans framtid kommande år


According to data from Rystad Energy, overall global oil output will fall this year as natural depletion overwhelms all new sources of supply. But the deficit will only widen in the years ahead due to the dramatic scaling back in spending on new exploration and development.

Statoil says that global capex is set to fall for two years in a row, and is on track to fall for a third year in 2017 as more spending cuts are likely. “For the first time in history, we’ve seen cutting of capex two years in a row and potentially we risk a third year as well for 2017,” Statoil’s Chief Financial Officer Hans Jakob Hegge told Bloomberg in a recent interview. “It might be that we see quite a dramatic reduction in replacing the capacity and of course that will have an impact, eventually, on price.” Oil companies are making painful cuts to spending, which will translate into much lower production than expected in the years ahead.
According to a separate report from SAFE, a Washington-based think tank, the oil industry has cut somewhere around $225 billion in capex in 2015 and 2016, which will lead to global supplies 4 million barrels per day lower in 2018-2020, compared to what market analysts expected as of 2014.

Ett område där man de facto kan se effekt på högre priser är US shale men studera då detta och förstå att krävt pris varierar kraftigt i landet både pga naturliga förutsättningar och vilka lokala priser man får (baserat på transportförutsättningar).

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