tisdag 12 januari 2016

Canacol, taskig tajming på förra blogginlägget

speciellt med den rubriken, bara att erkänna. Det är ett tungt innehav för mig och vad som jag vill nämna gör mig lite fundersam är hur aktien handlas, ser nästan ut som det är shortningscase (i fasen där man driver ner kursen) och jag har respekt för sådana aktörers research och förmåga att gräva upp okänd info, jag fattar bara inte vad. Hoppas jag har fel och att det bara är fortsatt svag olja och börs som driver aktiva säljare.

Nåväl, i mitt intensiva letande efter det så hittade jag enbart positiv info, så jag postar den tillsammans med min fundering ovan så vet ni hur jag tänker.

RED: Om jag inte kan bidra med bra tajming så kan jag i alla fall lämna liten present för den intresserade. Fulla jätterapporten från TD för 2016 inkl nedanstående.
http://www.investorvillage.com/uploads/57776/files/bestideas.pdf

TD Bank....Best Ideas for 2016....100 page+ report....their thoughts on CNE

We highlight three themes for 2016:
 Sustainable growth: We continue to view reserves and production growth as
the two most important performance scorecards for our coverage. We believe
that the market will award those companies that can demonstrate material
growth even during periods of low oil prices, as long as near-term balance
sheet strength is assured. On this note, we highlight that most of the companies
in our coverage universe will publish year-end reserve estimates during Q1/16
and some continue to have high-impact exploration programs over the course
of this year. We highlight Africa Oil (AOI-T), Canacol Energy (CNE-T),
Gran Tierra Energy (GTE-T), and Parex Resources (PXT-T) as potentially
reporting positive reserve and resource updates during Q1/16 or as having
material exploration upside later in the year. We also highlight Canacol
Energy (CNE-T), Lundin Petroleum (LUPE-SS), and Parex Resources
(PXT-T) for their material production growth potential during 2016.

 Political and regulatory catalysts: Our geographically diverse coverage
includes opportunities for those investors that are willing to take positions on
specific political trends or regulatory catalysts. We expect there could be
positive momentum in the geopolitical dynamics in Colombia and Argentina
that could underpin longer-term investments by the industry. In Colombia, we
view the recent ANH draft of new procedures for assigning exploration areas
as a potentially positive indicator of regulators increasing flexibility for
upstream exploration in the country. That said, we will continue to watch for
increased agency overlap and process complexity causing regulatory
slowdowns. Additionally, we highlight the potential for a Colombian peace
deal to be finalized this year that could be positive for our Colombian subgroup,
particularly for Gran Tierra Energy (GTE-T). We also remain
hopeful that the new Argentine government will adhere to a more investor
friendly economic agenda with positive implications for Madalena Energy
(MVN-V). Outside our LATAM coverage, we highlight a governmental
agreement and a final decision for a trans-border pipeline in East Africa
(Uganda and Kenya) to be a material catalyst for Africa Oil’s (AOI-T) South
Lokichar project. We also note the possibility of a tax dispute resolution for
Bankers Petroleum (BNK-T) during Q1/16, which we would view as a very
positive development for the company.
 M&A: We also expect M&A to provide positive surprises for shareholders of
at least some International E&Ps in 2016 if valuations do not improve. We
believe that the best-placed companies will be able to benefit from lower costs
and attractive acquisition opportunities while weaker companies remain
challenged. A number of companies in our coverage have recently announced
deals (asset and corporate) or have undertaken strategic reviews, including
Africa Oil (AOI-T), Gran Tierra Energy (GTE-T), Petroamerica (PTA-V),
and WesternZagros Resources (WZR-V).

Our Sector Stance: Overweight

We maintain our Overweight sector stance based on our belief that difficult market
conditions have already been overly discounted in valuations. A majority of the
larger producing International E&Ps in our coverage universe have relatively
strong balance sheets and netbacks (relative to comparable E&Ps in North
America) and are currently trading at around 0.49x Fully-risked NAVPS using our
updated commodity price assumptions, below the long-run average valuation for
the sector, which we estimate at around 0.55x

Top Picks

Canacol Energy Ltd.

CNE-T, $2.77; 12-Month Target: $5.00

Shahin Amini, +44 207 282 8217
We continue to be attracted to Canacol’s long-life reserves and resources with
limited exposure to global oil prices given its focus on Colombia gas and Ecuador
oil assets. These assets now account for over 85% of our Fully-risked NAVPS.
Although Canacol’s net debt levels are above the average of its peer group, we
believe that a significant increase in gas sales during Q1/16 supported by the
company’s fixed-price gas sales contracts provide for a sustainable cash flow
stream that supports the current debt levels. Therefore, we do not expect equity
dilution to be an overhang over the long term. We also expect the company’s
generally positive drilling results to continue this year, and yet Canacol is trading
at a discount to the average of its closest peers on all relevant metrics.

Lägger även in ett färskt intressant blogginlägg innehållandes en googleöversättning av artikel från Colombia. Vad annat ska man göra en så här tuff kväll än att leta, leta om man missat något...

 * clearly any new gas production from CNE that can reach the markets will be given a spot price well over their contracted contracts.  See below.....a translated version of an article I found from today.

It was agreed that Ecopetrol began importing gas from Venezuela yesterday • In suspense are 39 million cubic feet of fuel per day would come.


The Venezuelan oil company PDVSA again breaking his commitment to send gas to Colombia: the supply of 39 million cubic feet of fuel that enter the country on behalf of that company did not come yesterday, as expected by the Government.This was confirmed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, which since 2013 is expecting that the company meets exports were agreed with Ecopetrol."The import of gas from Venezuela is part of an agreement between the two countries whose basis is to establish a relationship of mutual benefit and under which Colombia exported gas for about eight years; Venezuela should do the same once developed their production projects, "the ministry said.Although the same statement said that Ecopetrol and PDVSA asked "promptly inform the new date on which the operation can be started," the news caused concern in the local industry. This is because the gas was among Venezuelan government accounts to prevent a shortage in the domestic market. Why?Remember that the Caribbean region has a low availability of gas, which in 2015 got in trouble the operation of the industry, particularly in Bolivar.The Atlantic Intergremial Committee noted earlier that this situation is due to "political decisions taken by the national government," as export the fuel to Venezuela for the past eight years.It has also remained the permanent supply of gas from La Guajira into the country, regardless of the lower availability of gas in the region or a pipeline to bring gas from the fields in the interior to the coast is built.This led to the production of gas in La Guajira decrease by 7% between 2010 and 2014, and spent 251 million cubic feet (mpcd) 187 mpcd. As a result, it has also become more expensive fuel prices.To remedy the situation, the minister Tomas Gonzalez raised a number of options to consider building a pipeline inland to the coast, but would not be ready in the short term; It included the expansion of the gas pipeline between Cartagena and Sincelejo, owned by Promigas, and imports of gas through the Trans-Venezuelan pipeline.However, that is a hope that not even seen the light. "This risks of shortages who have not contracted gas. Will have to see where the government will bring 39 million cubic feet definitely not come from Venezuela, "said Cesar Lorduy, lawyer and member of the board of Andi.Carlos Román, executive director of the Business Council of Bolivar (CGB), added that "with that we would send gas relieving gas requirements we have," so you have to check whether the supply is necessary at this time or possibly , in March.Energy shortageWith the lack of gas also revives the specter of a possible power rationing. This is because the El Niño phenomenon has led to plants thermal power generation ignite and come to generate up to 50% of the energy in certain periods, to protect water reservoirs.Among these plants, it has given priority to those that run on gas, because liquid fuels and coal are more expensive. This means that if there is not enough gas, the park will have to generate liquid again and the price of electricity is more expensive.Due to operational and financial problems of thermal generators, drought conditions that caused the Child, and the failures in the supply of gas, the Comptroller General of the Republic (CGR) also recently warned that these factors "built a stage reappears where a risk of energy shortages. " 

Venezuela's PDVSA won't begin gas exports to Colombia on Jan. 1

COLOMBIA VENEZUELA | 01 de Enero de 2016

State-owned energy company Petroleos de Venezuela will not begin natural gas exports to neighboring Colombia on Friday, as earlier agreed, but instead will prioritize domestic demand due to the impact of "climate variability" on power production, Colombia's Mines and Energy Ministry said in a statement. EFE/File
Bogota, Jan 1 (EFE).- State-owned energy company Petroleos de Venezuela will not begin natural gas exports to neighboring Colombia on Friday, as earlier agreed, but instead will prioritize domestic demand due to the impact of "climate variability" on power production, Colombia's Mines and Energy Ministry said in a statement.
"According to a notice sent by PDVSA on Dec. 30, the company will not begin delivering gas to Colombia starting Jan. 1, 2016, due 'to the impact of climate variability on electricity generation,'" the ministry said.
The statement did not elaborate on the climate fluctuations, but Venezuela - along with Colombia - has been hard hit by an El Niño-triggered drought in recent months that has reduced reservoir levels at hydroelectric dams.
Colombia exported gas to Venezuela for eight years under a bilateral agreement that calls on the roles to be reversed starting Jan. 1, once power projects in the latter country have come online.
The contract specifies that Venezuela is to export 39 million cubic feet of natural gas per day, or slightly more than 3 percent of Colombia's daily supply of that fossil fuel.
Colombian state-controlled energy company Ecopetrol met the necessary regulatory, commercial, technical and operational requirements for receiving the gas at the start of 2016, the statement added.
"Given the new situation, Ecopetrol has asked PDVSA GAS to promptly inform it of the new date on which this operation might commence," the ministry said.
The contract provides for situations in which priority is given to meeting domestic demand, and therefore "Ecopetrol is attentive to how the dialogue with PDVSA GAS evolves and will duly report on any new development."

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