måndag 18 januari 2016

1 miljon fat/dag hotas och är av typen mycket svårstartade igen.


Artikeln är inte helt färsk men ändå mer aktuell än någonsin. För det är detta som Saudi har en rejäl chans att slå ut, inte primärt shale oljan, i alla fall inte de bättre områdena även om de sämre åtminstone tillfälligt också kommer se fall om inte priserna stiger pga principen att de ger höga flöden som snabbt faller. Logiskt är då att det just faller ner snabbt när man slutar borra.
 Jag upprepar att jag tror vi har en spik nedåt kommande månader men att det sedan vänder ungefär som Goldman förutspår för andra halvan av 2016. Iran kommer behöva tid på sig att öka produktione. Man ser ibland rikgit löjliga påståenden att de ska öka dramatiskt på kort tid. Landet behöver mängder med utländska investeringar inom oljesektorn, and guess what, den sektorn vill inte spendera mer utan mindre pengar när oljan är 27-28 usd. 
Hundreds of thousands of US stripper wells with production totaling 1 million b/d of crude could be at risk if oil prices fall below $35/b, where prices teetered in recent days, for long, observers say.
Stripper wells are wells nearing the end of their lives that each produce very low volumes of 15 b/d or less. Collectively, they account for a surprisingly large amount of output -- as much as 1 million b/d of crude from about 410,000 oil wells, or about 11% of the US' total oil production of around 9.1 million b/d, according to the National Stripper Well Association website.
"The low $30s/b is about it," as far as the economic threshold, Mike Cantrell, chairman of the Oklahoma City-based National Stripper Well Association, said. "We're not making any money ... at below $30."
Front-month WTI crude futures in early afternoon trading were up $1.30 to $37.61/b.
Crude prices closed in the $35-$36/b range in the last few trading days.
Cantrell said many stripper well owners are "struggling," but added: "I don't think the hammer has dropped yet" on many or most of them.
This could happen, though, if prices get much lower toward year end, when companies report year-end reserve numbers, he said. For now, operators "are kind of hunkered" down, he added.
Investment bank Tudor Pickering Holt said in its daily note on Monday that the average stripper well does not cover direct operating expenses at $35/b WTI.
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 For stripper-well operators like Shulman and thousands of others across the U.S., the situation is especially dire: unlike shale fields that can be quickly shut down and restarted in response to price swings, stripper operations are geologically and technically delicate.
Shut a stripper well down and chances are the bottom of the hole will fill with water or permanently clog with sand and you’ll never see another barrel of oil, said Brad Gessel, who operates 200 stripper wells in fields formerly owned by the likes of Shell near Whittington, Illinois.
“If you shut it in, you may never get that production back again,” 


En annan sak att komma ihåg. WTI och Brent är inte det pris alla får för sin olja... 

 Flint Hills Resources LLC, the refining arm of billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch’s industrial empire, said it would pay -$0.50 a barrel Friday for North Dakota Sour, a high-sulfur grade of crude, according to a list price posted on its website. That’s down from $13.50 a barrel a year ago and $47.60 in January 2014.
Plains All American quoted two other varieties of American low quality crude at very low prices: South Texas Sour at $13.25 a barrel and Oklahoma Sour at $13.50 a barrel.

Canadian Bitumen

Producers outside the U.S. are also feeling pain. The price for Canadian bitumen -- the thick, sticky substance at the center of the heated debate over TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline -- fell to $8.35 on last week, down from as much as $80 less than two years ago.

 “You don’t produce stuff that’s a negative number,”

Vad denna blogg och mitt läsande handlar om.. är naturligtvis hur snabbt produktion av olja har anledning att stängas ner och att jämföra det med ett Iran som jag tror kommer tillföra 0.5 milj fat/dag kommande säg 6 månader (folk som tror på högre siffror tror jag missar att Iran behöver utländska investeringar vilket man endast i begränsad omfattning kommer få från oljebolag när Brent kostar 28 usd...)

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