måndag 13 april 2015

Tillbaka efter semester

Ett par artiklar som stämmer med min ökade säsongsmässiga skepsis mot guld samtidigt som jag fördjupat mig i zink på allvar efter att tidigare nöjt mig med att glatt konstatera att vissa bolag hade det som bi-produkt. Men zink förtjänar i mitt tycke huvudrollen.

Zink:


For the miner, China’s MMG Ltd., it’s a problem because replacing the tapped-out mine -- which is responsible for 4 percent of the world’s zinc output -- with a fresh source of the metal has proven elusive. For commodity investors who have grown accustomed to the emergence of supply gluts sparking selloffs in everything from copper to wheat, it’s a boon.

 Zinc, unlike those other raw materials, is rebounding, having posted an 8 percent gain over the past three weeks that stemmed an eight-month slide. That’s largely because the fate of MMG’s mine highlights a growing new trend in the zinc market. From Africa to Ireland, mines that have produced the metal for decades are now tapped out.

Morgan Stanley estimates that by 2017 more than 1.2 million metric tons of annual mined supply will be taken out of production. That’s more than the U.S. uses in an entire year. “It’s all about supply,” Clive Burstow, a London-based investment manager at Baring Asset Management, which oversees $44 billion, said in a telephone interview. “It’s simply that the big mines are coming off stream this year, and there’s no big supply to replace it. So, we’re naturally moving into an increasing deficit market.”

 Tighter supplies are prompting banks including BNP Paribas SA and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to forecast higher prices for the metal that’s used in steel auto parts, brass plumbing fixtures and sunscreen. Demand exceeded output by the most in nine years in 2014 and the deficit will almost double next year, according to data from the International Lead & Zinc Study Group and Bloomberg Intelligence. Price Gains The recent rally in zinc left prices up 7.5 percent over the past 12 months on the London Metal Exchange, to $2,174 a ton. That’s the only gain among the six main metals traded on the LME.

The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex slumped 15 percent the nine months through March, and fell 9.3 percent in the past year as the Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials tumbled 27 percent. Prices will rise as high as $2,397 by year end, according to the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of nine traders and analysts.

Goldman forecast $2,500 in 12 months, and BNP Paribas predicted an average of $2,850 in 2016. The world’s refined-zinc supply fell short of demand by 310,000 tons last year, the most since 2005, International Lead & Zinc Study Group data show. The gap could expand to 1.98 million tons by 2017, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kenneth Hoffman and Sean Gilmartin said in a report last month.

Fewer Deposits The supply lag comes after a decade-long boom for metals demand in China, the world’s top consumer, spurred miners to dig ore out of the ground as quickly as possible. At the same time, rising costs and a lack of untapped big deposits meant that producers had a hard time bringing on replacement supplies as consumption increased. MMG, the Hong Kong-listed unit of China’s biggest state-owned metals trader, plans to close the Century mine in Australia by midyear and has failed to identify a replacement.

 “We can’t find any more zinc of significance, which tells us even more that it’s going to be tight,” Andrew Michelmore, MMG’s chief executive officer, said in a March 10 interview on Bloomberg Television. “We’re very bullish on zinc.” It’s so hard to find new mines that producers are being driven to increasingly remote locations. Ironbark Zinc Ltd., an Australian explorer backed by Glencore Plc and Nyrstar NV, is exploring a deposit near an inlet on northern Greenland, a coastal area of icebergs and polar bears, that may contain 13 billion pounds (5.9 million tons) of lead and zinc.

China Demand Even as mines shut, slowing growth in China threatens demand and a stronger dollar curbs the appeal of commodities as alternative investments, said Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities Inc. More than half of global supplies are used to galvanize steel, Morgan Stanley estimates. China accounted for 51 percent of the world’s crude-steel production in February, according to the latest data from the World Steel Association.

China steel producersestimate their output will contract this year after consumption peaked and more mills are shut. “We have some concerns about demand, and we’ve seen a lot less restocking than we’d normally get this time of year,” Melek said by telephone from Toronto. “There’s concern that China’s steel output will be lower because of a glut of steel, and that means you’re going to use less galvanized product, which means less zinc.” Exploration Budgets China’s economy is still growing. The country will use about 6.9 million tons in 2015, Morgan Stanley analysts Tom Price and Joel Crane said in March 24 report. That’s the most since at least 2007.

 Even with the rally in prices over the past year, zinc is more than 50 percent below its record in 2006, which has discouraged spending on new mines. “Current prices don’t allow us to develop the projects that we have,” said David Gleit, head of investor relations for Lima-based Volcan Cia. Minera SAA, the biggest Latin American producer. Stockpiles monitored by the LME tumbled 26 percent in the first quarter, the biggest loss since 2007. In addition to the Century closing, Vedanta Resources Plc plans to shut its Lisheen mine in Ireland, cutting supply by 175,000 tons, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates. “The amount of new mines coming on stream to replace these mines ending their life -- the number and amount produced -- is relatively limited,” Stephen Briggs, a senior strategist at BNP Paribas, said in a telephone interview.

Guld:
Ni vet säkert att jag anser Indien och Kina vara nyckelländer för guldefterfrågan och faktum är att deras efterfrågan nu går in i säsongsmässigt svag period vilket är en orsak att PM bolag och sommar inte brukar fungera så bra.

Men sen är det också viktigt att förstå att skörden är viktig i Indien och den har inte varit helt lyckad. Utöver det nämns nedan regeringens försök och jag har svårt att säga hur framgångsrika dom blir med de senaste försöken att få fram guld från templen. Däremot tror jag att börsuppgångarna i Indien och Kina drar intresse från guld.

SHINGAVE NAIK, India, April 9 (Reuters) - Gold demand in the world's biggest consumerIndia risks falling for a second straight year in 2015, as millions of Indian farmers hit by erratic weather and falling commodity prices trim gold purchases.

Nearly two-thirds of India's gold demand comes from rural areas where jewellery is a traditional store of wealth for millions who have no access to the formal banking system. Full artikel
Now, Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to get his hands on this temple gold, estimated at 3,000 metric tons — more than two-thirds as much gold as is held in the U.S. bullion depository at Fort Knox, Kentucky — to help tackle India's chronic trade imbalance.
Modi's government is planning to launch a scheme in May that would encourage temples to deposit their gold with banks in return for interest payments. Full artikel
I dagsläget är mitt tyngsta innehav Trevali Mining följt av PanOrient, Canacol, Dream Unlimited. Jag har också ca 35% kassa.

Lite kuriosa är att jag startade min "Kanada karriär" slutet 2005 alltså för nästan 10 år sedan med huvudsakligt fokus på basmetaller. Förhoppningen är alltså att zink är på väg ur en cykelfas och in i nästa uppgång på klassiskt råvaruvis. Om guld så är min förhoppning att under sommaren och/eller hösten på allvar ta nya tag. Betyder inte att jag har rätt... jag bara går på oddsen såsom jag lärt känna dom och då tillsammans med magkänsla om guldet och för den delen dollarn. Samtidigt noterar jag med intresse styrkan i Endeavour Mining. Det är ett bolag som blir bättre och bättre dag för dag och som jag naturligtvis fortsätter följa noga hela tiden även om det för tillfället inte är ett tungt innehav.

2 kommentarer:

  1. Hej.

    Äger du inte Vigmed längre?

    SvaraRadera
    Svar
    1. Jo, jag äger Vigmed aktier fortfarande. Vad jag listade ovan var mina fyra tunga innehav. Om Vigmed så kan jag säga att jag inte gillade pressreleasen om VD's aktieförsäljning till pappan...

      Mina cyniska Kanada ögon ser en risk att det handlar om att gå runt att behöva göra ständiga dagliga insiderförsäljningar genom att låta pappan portionera ut dom istället.

      Men jag äger fortfarande Vigmed aktier och det gav häromdagen liten nagg i portföljen.

      Radera