fredag 16 januari 2015

Endeavour 2014 och prognos 2015

Ser mkt bra ut vid snabb anblick, får återkomma till detta. Som ni märker av 2014 så är man duktiga med att vara försiktiga med prognoser. Övre intervallet för 2015 är 500.000 ounce, man är en jätte och nu tacklar man snabbt att ouncen inte bedömts som tillräckligt lönsamma samt att balansräkningen varit för belastad.

Det är värt att påminna om att med 413.1 milj aktier och kurs 0.54 cad så är bolaget värderat till 186.5 musd. Till det kommer nettoskuld som är på 238 musd (men snabbt fallande). Jag är mycket positiv till bolaget. Risk finns naturligtvis med guldpriset men risken där tycker jag som sagt har fallit. Ja, 1200 kanske vi kan falla testa men 1000 usd känns alltmer osannolikt och om det trots skulle hända så kommer olja och Euro gynna EDV och med nuvarande AISC så är det inga problem. Jag tror också att 2015 prognosen för AISC är mkt konservativt satt vad gäller olja och valuta vilket iofs är smart. Kommer visa sig vid Q1 om inte förr.

January 15, 2015
Endeavour Mining Delivers 466,000 oz in 2014 to Exceed Guidance and Generates Positive Cash in Q4


Vancouver, January 15, 2015 - Endeavour Mining Corporation ("Endeavour" or the "Corporation") (TSX:EDV) (ASX:EVR) (OTCQX:EDVMF) announces 2014 gold production of 466,000 ounces, which includes 120,000 ounces during Q4 2014. The cash balance as of December 31, 2014 of $62 million demonstrates positive cash generation during Q4 2014. Endeavour has now completed its major capital investment programs of 2013 and 2014 which have resulted in increased production and reduced AISC/oz. In 2015, Endeavour expects to produce 475,000 to 500,000 ounces with further cost improvements and plans to use its projected surplus cash flow to reduce debt.

Highlights from 2014 and 2015 Production and AISC/oz Guidance
  • Endeavour has exceeded 2014 production guidance of 400,000 to 440,000 ounces with full year production of 465,770 ounces, which represents a 44% increase over the 324,275 ounces produced in 2013. The increase is a result of the Tabakoto and Nzema mines exceeding their prior year production levels and the addition of the Agbaou mine in 2014 as our fourth and newest operation. Gold production results by mine are provided in Table 1.

  • Endeavour is providing 2015 production guidance of 475,000 to 500,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost per ounce of $930 to $980. Guidance details by mine are provided in Tables 2 and 3.

  • At $1,200 gold price and using the mid-point of 2015 production and AISC/oz guidance ranges, Endeavour is expecting to generate an AISC margin of approximately $120 million in 2015. Calculations are outlined in Table 4.

  • Non-sustaining capital is planned to be $20 million in 2015 that is mostly related to the completion of 2014 projects. Over 2013 and 2014, Endeavour invested approximately $300 million in new mine construction and improvements to its operating mines, which includes approximately $90 million spent in 2014.

  • The preliminary Q4 2014 production and other financial information provided in this news release are approximate figures and may differ from the final results included in the 2014 annual audited statements and MD&A.
Table 1: 2014 Full year and quarterly gold production (in ounces)
AgbaouYougaTabakotoNzemaTotal
Q1 201424,086*19,86733,47228,487105,912
Q2 201431,87818,28536,40835,946122,517
Q3 201443,42818,43230,86624,886117,612
Q4 201447,36519,97726,57725,810119,729
Total146,75776,561127,323115,129465,770
* Includes 9,148 pre-production ounces from January 2014

Neil Woodyer, CEO, stated
"We are very pleased to report our above-guidance production performance for the group which was achieved with an excellent health and safety record for the year. Cash cost and all-in sustaining cost per ounce will be reported in the 2014 financial results to be released in early-March, however, it is expected that the group all-in sustaining cost for the fourth quarter of 2014 will be similar to the $991 per ounce achieved in Q3 2014. As a result, we anticipate the full year 2014 AISC per ounce to be just below the mid-point of the $985 to $1,070 guidance range.

Our focus on cost-reductions during the year has resulted in the improvement of our AISC from over $1,100 per ounce in 2013 to under $1,000 per ounce. For 2015, we are expecting continued cost improvements with an AISC per ounce guidance range of $930 to $980 while our gold production is forecast to be 475,000 to 500,000 ounces.

We have a stable production outlook for the Agbaou and Nzema mines and some production growth and operational efficiencies expected from the Tabakoto mine. As of January 2015, we have three higher-grade sources of ore for the Tabakoto mill allowing it to operate at its optimal capacity: we have now commenced mining from the Kofi C open pit, the Segala underground mine now has six stopes available, and the Tabakoto underground mine performance continues to improve.

The cash balance at the end of the year was approximately $62 million which increased from $55 million at the end of Q3 2014 - a clear sign that we have completed our major capital spending programs and are now generating positive free cash flow. We anticipate using a portion of the available free cash flow forecast for 2015 to reduce outstanding debt as we focus on strengthening our financial position."


2015 Production and AISC Guidance by Mine

Table 2: 2015 Production guidance by mine (ounces, 100% basis)
2012201320142015
ActualActualActualGuidance Range
Agbaou-6,132146,757150,000-155,000
Nzema109,447103,464115,129110,000-115,000
Tabakoto110,301125,231127,323155,000-165,000
Youga91,03089,44876,56160,000-65,000
    Total310,778324,275465,770475,000-500,000


Table 3: 2015 AISC/oz guidance by mine ($/oz)
2015
Guidance Range ($/oz)
Agbaou$690-$740
Nzema$1,000-$1,050
Tabakoto$950-$1,000
Youga$975-$1,025
Mine-level AISC/oz$883-$933
    Plus Corporate G&A (~$18 million)$37
    Plus Exploration (sustaining) & Other (~$5 million)$10
AISC/oz$930-$980


Table 4: 2015 AISC margin and free cashflow (before tax and financing)
2015 Production (guidance range mid-point)ozs487,500
2015 AISC/oz (guidance range mid-point) $/oz$955
Revenue$1,200 gold price$ million$585
    Less: AISC costs$ million$465
All-in sustaining margin$ million$120
Non-sustaining capital: Principal projects include completion of
Kofi C open pit access and completion of Cement Rock Fill (CRF)
plant for Segala underground mine operations 
$ million$20
Free cashflow (before tax & financing costs)$ million$100

Financial Update

At December 31, 2014, the key components of Endeavour's balance sheet included $62 million in cash and $300 million of debt drawn from the $350 million revolving corporate facility and the Corporation had 413.1 million common shares outstanding. 

As part of its annual year-end financial review, Endeavour assesses the carrying value of its assets. This assessment takes into account, among other things, the impact of lower gold prices as well as current mineral reserves and resources and updated mine plans. This process will be completed in connection with the release of the Corporation's fourth quarter and full year 2014 financial results scheduled for early March 2015. A preliminary assessment including lower gold prices and current market conditions indicate that non-cash impairment charges are likely.

7 kommentarer:

  1. EDV är intressant på många sätt och jag tackar för din input.

    Är dock lite orolig för vågen av motstånd som gruvverksamhet möter i Afrika. Att kalla det för just våg är kanske en överdrift, men näringen verkar allt oftare drabbas av allt från våldsamma protester till hot från extremistiska organisationer.
    Nu senast var det True Gold som fick lägga sin verksamhet på is (Burkina Faso).
    http://www.truegoldmining.com/news/true-gold-temporarily-suspends-operations-karma

    /Takira

    SvaraRadera
    Svar
    1. Okej, jag har i princip aldrig stött på motstånd mot gruvnäringen i Afrika före det nu nämner (jag kan inte det caset alls). Någon gång genom åren har jag sett protester vid uppstart av ny gruva där manuell brytning skett men nog aldrig på en pågående gruva och absolut inte som man ser i Latinamerika.

      Radera
    2. Hotet jag upplevt historiskt i Afrika har varit skattemässigt med stigande royalties men även det tycker jag känns rätt lugnt nu efter att priserna fallit. Sen naturligtvis som jag skrivit som orsak att jag länge passade på EDV, Ebola... jag har av den anledningen hårdbevakat Ebola i regionen via google bevakningar och det ser allt ljusare ut.

      Radera
  2. Lite TA:

    Guldet har/hade ett viktigt motstånd vid 1250-1260, oktobertoppen är nu passerad och en veckostängning på 1270 vore mumma. Nästa nivå är 1340.

    HUI har brutit upp genom 180, återtestat den nivån och nästa nivå kan vara 210 (SMA200).

    SvaraRadera
    Svar
    1. Kanon, tack för att du tog dig tid att kolla och skriva.

      Radera
  3. De större bolagen (GDX) drar iväg men juniorerna (GDXJ) har hamnat på efterkälken senaste dagarna. Irriterande då man har JNUG. Orsak? Kan det ha med det ha med optionslösen att göra? Eller är det ett tecken på att större kapital är på väg in i sektorn, dvs först in i de större bolagen och rinner sedan över till juniorerna?
    /S

    SvaraRadera
  4. Tror det blir en förlösande effekt på JNUG inom kort den har verkligen inte avspeglat rörelserna i guldpriset denna vecka.

    SvaraRadera