tisdag 25 september 2012

Södra Mali utvecklas inom guld

Avion studsade fullt logiskt uppåt igår efter häxhändelsen på optionslösendagen i fredags. Jag köpte aktier på 76-77 cent igår.

Att den inte studsade högre än 79 cent (och det först efter omfattande handel) samtidigt som teoretisk budkurs är 81-82 cent får nog mest tillskrivas att vi behöver 1-3 handelsdagar för att helt enkelt beta av de snabba vinster som ska tas av de som hade turen i fredags att få aktier på 73 cent 10 minuter efter stängning. Det var ju 13 miljoner aktier om jag förstod saken rätt och sådana recirkulerade aktier stod nog för huvuddelen av beredda säljare på lägre nivåer igår. Vem Citigroup agerade för och konsekvenserna för dom att ha sålt i en mängd bolag långt under marknadspris vid optionslösendagen i fredags (även jämfört efter en svag dag som igår senare) kan man bara spekulera i. Kanske var det aktier marknaden ändå hade behövt beta av? Oavsett kan man bara notera att omsättningen är mycket hälsosamt hög i både Avion och Endeavour.

Om Avion: Som vi tidigare diskuterat så är södra & sydvästra Mali i princip oberört och ohotat av konflikten uppe i det ödsliga norr. Frågan om Mali's framtid som oförändrat land är mer om västmakterna vill stoppa Al Quaida från att göra den delen laglöst eller inte.

Ett tecken på det relativa lugnet är följande investering. Det är för övrigt skoj att se mineralproducerande länder som lyckas "ta ett steg till".

Firms pen deal for Mali's first gold refinery
BAMAKO, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Mali's first gold refinery will be built in a $58 million joint venture between Swiss Bullion Company and Malian firm PAMBC, officials said on Monday.
The plant will be in southern Mali and is due to begin operations by November 2013, the director of Swiss Bullion Company, Dario Littera, said on state radio. It will have a monthly capacity of 20 tonnes of ore, he added.
Swiss Bullion Company and PAMBC signed the deal on Friday at a ceremony attended by the Mali's minister of mines, the government said in a statement.
Mali is Africa's third biggest gold miner behind South Africa and Ghana, and is on track to raise output despite the chaotic aftermath of a military coup which allowed militants to seize control of northern regions.
Mali's gold is currently refined abroad, and the country produces about 50 tonnes of refined gold a year. (Reporting by Tiemoko Diallo and Adama Diarra; Editing by Richard Valdmanis and Pravin Char)



Mali är ett av fyra västafrikanska länder som "Nya Endeavour" kommer ha gruvor i 2014.

4 kommentarer:

  1. Hi OB,


    I have often seen blog-writers refer to the term ”free-ride”. This is apparently used when an investment has doubled and you sell of half of the holdings so that your initial investment is fully covered. It seems you are then supposed to “forget” or at least not worry so much about the stock and basically just see how far it goes.

    Personally I think a stock should always be questioned from the basis of: “If I did not own this stock already would I buy it today”? Problem with that statement is most stocks would be sold off after 50 or 100% gains thinking like that. But in the mining industry a 100%, 200% and even more is not that seldom – so free-riders could keep in a stock longer than you normally would.

    I would be interested in your thought on this phenomena? Feel free to answer in Swedish :-)

    And btw – you have a great blog, keep it rollin’


  2. Yeah, I agree with you in some way. I never talk about taking "a free ride" on shares (and regarding other blog-writers I think it is often used to publish a sell without looking stupid if the stock continues upwards and instead being able to take credit for further up-moves without actually owning the stock if it and the opposite if it goes down...)

    Still, as I have stated many times I do actually sell stocks when it moves up. Especially in i non-trending or downward trending market such as we have seen until recently. My argument is that I always try to buy in tranches as the stock in such markets usually continues down when I start buying something that has become cheap enough for me to start buying. So when I have maybe 2-4 tranches and the stock turns, I try to sell the most expensive ones I bought to keep GAV low and be able to buy again if it starts falling.

    Now however I think we are in an upward trending market for the gold/silver miners so I have changed those rules quite a bit for the reasons you state. Basically I wait for more profits before I sell and I sell less aggressive when I do. How I sell also of course depends on my portfolioweight towards that company vs the companyrisk I see etc.

  3. I could add that I do not find any greater comfort seing my portfolio loose value because the shares causing it, being "free ride shares". It is a fairly stupid concept in my view.

  4. Thanks for answering :-)

    I actually agree very much with your last comment: The pain of a shrinking portfolio does burn less just because the dropping stocks are free-riders :-)