lördag 4 augusti 2012

Intressanta "insikter" om främst Sulliden (AAB), även Minera IRL

Jag väntar med intresse på Sullidens kommande feasibility studie som väntas denna månaden. Jag äger aktien indirekt via AAB där jag även får utdelning. Båda bolagen är Forbes bolag (som bl.a även Dacha, Allana och Avion).

Nedanstående fd nyhetsbrevsförfattare är duktig (men misskötte sitt nyhetsbrev) och jag finner framförallt kommentarerna om att Sulliden avser minska planerad årsproduktion för att sänka kapitalbehov för uppstart men även intressant nog att göra tillståndsprocessen enklare. Jag vet inte hur mkt han har det underbyggt men man kan anta att han fått det från ledningen.

Det kommer bli ett väldigt långt minelife men på det hela låter det inte helt fel resonerat. Speciellt om tillståndsprocessen blir mindre dramatisk.

Kommentarer även om Minera IRL och jag kan bara upprepa att aktien börjar bli intressant runt årsskiftet när tunneln nått så långt att man kan borra vidare vid Ollachea. Att bolaget envisas driva Argentina projektet mot produktion före Ollachea ser jag som negativt bidrag till rimligt aktievärde.

CA: I'm relatively certain the results will be positive. It will contain a resource estimate update to the existing 3.4 Moz deposit, which includes 66 Moz silver. The deposit remains open in all directions, including at depth, so there is excellent exploration upside. The update will likely add ounces and upgrade existing ounces that are currently in the Indicated and Inferred category.

The initial production profile of the open-pit mine will be scaled down from 150,000 ounces/year (150 Koz/year)to 100 Koz/year. That will reduce the initially planned development cost of $200M by half.
With a definitive feasibility study and a smaller, simpler mine plan, the approval process will be easier to navigate as well. The definitive feasibility study will feed the all-important environmental impact assessment, which will be submitted in the fall. It should take 9–12 months to obtain approvals and Sulliden has recently hired a seasoned specialist to manage the process for them.
The Sulliden story has all the hallmarks of a management team that is thinking soberly and strategically with the wherewithal to get across the finish line.

TGR: Minera IRL also has significant assets in Peru. It has a mine in production, Corihuarmi, with about another three years of production left. Minera is counting on future production from its Ollachea project. Can Minera IRL bring it into production within that timeframe?

CA: Chances are very good. Corihuarmi, which may be exhausted by mid-2015, is currently producing 30+ Koz/year. When Ollachea comes on-line, it will have production of 117 Koz. It will be an underground mine and the access tunnel is currently under construction and progressing on schedule.
The deposit itself currently contains 2.6 Moz Indicated and Inferred with solid grades between 2.8 and 4 grams per tonne (g/t) with a higher-grade core within the resource envelope of 5.3 g/t. Ollachea also remains open in all directions.

Minera is currently in the middle of preparing a definitive feasibility study that is due by the end of the year and the company is already working on mine financing options. Permitting and financing are scheduled for 2013 with mine development in 2014 and production scheduled for 2015. So, yes, I think the schedule is reasonable.
In addition, Minera IRL is a very well-managed company with the venerable Courtney Chamberlain at the helm and roughly $25M in the bank. Finally, exercising tremendous foresight, the company has an excellent relationship with the local community through numerous programs, including an agreement that provides for a 5% ownership interest, and a recently signed 30-year surface rights agreement, which enjoyed wide spread local support.
The company should be able to weather the storm and continue advancing its projects in Peru, as well as its Don Nicolas project in Argentina.

TGR: Some of Argentina's oil and gas resources have been nationalized in recent months. Is Don Nicolas at risk?

CA: The country does not have a history of nationalization in the hard-rock mining industry, although it does in the oil and gas industry. The nationalization of the oil company, YPF SA (YPF:NYSE), has a lot to do with the fact that Argentina has gone from energy exporter to net energy importer in a massive way over the last few years. It used to provide all its own energy, but now it's suddenly importing large quantities of natural gas to keep the lights on and it's been draining the country's foreign exchange. As a result, the government has been reacting rather radically. However Argentina didn't try to nationalize the mining industry in the 2001 crisis and so far mining companies are soldiering on.

TGR: What about the move by President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to restrict access to imported mining equipment?

CA: The government of Argentina is not necessarily targeting mining specifically. It is making policy decisions related to keeping foreign exchange in the country. It is impacting mining companies, but it hasn't shut things down for them. Is there added risk? Yes, especially with imposing capital controls and rules on the way dividends are repatriated and capital equipment purchases are made. It is having an impact on mines. But it hasn't shut down operations or exploration.


1 kommentar:

  1. Don Nicolas ligger i den mest miningvänliga delen av Argentina och det spekuleras i att detta projekt kommer att lyftas fram som ett exempel på att det går att bedriva mining i Argentina, dvs snabba tillstånd i höst, vi får se. Låg capex, bra marginaler men bara 4 år minelife.

    Om sulliden slöt ett avtal liknande det Minera har gjort i Ollachea så skulle projektet vara en no-brainer. Spännande att följa tillståndsprocessen där också.